How the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole drive increasing year-to-year climate variability, even as the planet warms over the long term. Using CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate models, the work assesses growing disruption to rainfall, sea level and tropical-cyclone frequency in climate-vulnerable countries. South Asia is a priority for adaptation: Bangladesh in particular faces heat stress in El Niño years and flooding in La Niña years.
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